EVERNORTH · XRPNW · LISTED OCT 12, 2026
Warrant Value Estimator
Strike $11.50 · ~473.27M XRP + ~$45M net cash · 11,739,645 warrants · exercisable now · expires ~Oct 2031
XRP / SHARE
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at $1.43069
NAV / SHARE
—
at $1.43069

What is an XRPNW warrant worth?

Intrinsic value per warrant at today's XRP price, under each market-premium scenario. Type an XRP price to see it move.
🔒 LOCKED · DEAL PRICE
$1.43069
Official closing XRP price (Oct 9 8-K). Fixes XRP per share at 6.10 — it never changes.
✏️ YOUR INPUT · XRP TODAY / AT CALL
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Moves NAV and every value on this page. Leave blank to use the locked price.
Bear 0.8× NAV Base 1.5× Bull 2.5× Implied by today's XRPN price Something you type / XRP & NAV
Model estimate: intrinsic value only (stock − $11.50), no time value. Not investment advice.
  1. Fri Oct 9, 2026
    Deal closed · warrants exercisable
  2. Mon Oct 12, 2026
    First trade as Evernorth (4.85M float)
  3. ~Nov 6–9, 2026
    Earliest possible $18 call notice
  4. ~Mon Dec 7, 2026
    Earliest forced redemption date
  5. Apr 9, 2027
    Insider lock-up ends (~61M shares)
  6. ~Oct 2031
    Warrants expire

1 · Estimate

Your position, forced-call scenarios, and the full XRP-price table.
MY XRPNW POSITION
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FORCED-CALL SCENARIOS · NO-CASH PLAYBOOK (sell enough warrants to exercise the rest)
$
🔺 XRP price at which you get force-called ($18+ stock), base 1.5× mNAV.
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🔺 XRPN price when the call lands — no mNAV assumption needed.
mNAV
×
SHARES
← swipe table to see all columns →

2 · Market check

What XRPN and XRPNW are actually trading at versus the model. Quotes may be delayed ~15 min.
📈 MARKET CHECK — WHAT XRPN & XRPNW ARE PRICING RIGHT NOW
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Fetching…
Quotes come from a small helper on this site (/api/quote) reading Yahoo Finance's feed — may be delayed ~15 min, and you can overtype either box. Uses the locked print, the dilution setting, and the "XRP today" box for the XRP price.
LIVE · XRPNW ÷ (XRPN − 11.50) — WARRANT AS A FRACTION OF INTRINSIC VALUE (daily closes)
1.0 = warrant at full intrinsic value. 0.13 = 13 cents per dollar. Negative or wild while XRPN < $11.50 (before Sep 29). Expect it to climb toward 0.9+ once warrants are exercisable (at closing, Oct 9; first Evernorth trading day Oct 12) if the stock holds. Daily bars only — TradingView serves intraday on ratio symbols to logged-in paid accounts, not embeds.
LIVE · XRPN STOCK & XRPNW WARRANT (hourly)
Chart data via TradingView (Cboe One, may be delayed ~15 min). The Market Check panel above computes the ratio from any prices you type, independent of these charts.

3 · What could happen

The $18 forced call and how to keep exposure without new cash.
⚠ FORCED WARRANT REDEMPTION — THE "$18 CALL"

Per Armada II's filed warrant terms, the company may redeem all warrants at $0.01 each, on at least 30 calendar days' written notice, only if the stock's last sale price is ≥ $18.00 on 20 trading days within a 30-trading-day window. This is the only forced-conversion trigger — there is no lower-priced call.

THE TRIGGER
Stock ≥ $18 for 20 of 30 trading days (need not be consecutive). Window can only start after warrants become exercisable — at closing, Fri Oct 9, 2026 (the Oct 5 Warrant Agreement Amendment deleted the 30-day wait). Also requires an effective, current registration statement for the warrant shares (the S-4 registered 11.5M warrant shares) or an election to force cashless.
THE TIMELINE
Fastest wipeout: ~9 weeks post-close (4 weeks of qualifying trades + 3-day gap + 30-day notice) — earliest notice ~Fri Nov 6, earliest redemption date ~Mon Dec 7, 2026. A call is never an ambush — it's a slow-motion event with a month of formal warning.
STOCK PRICE AT CALL → PER-WARRANT OUTCOMES
STOCK AT CALL IMPLIED XRP (1.5×) CASH EXERCISE CASHLESS RATIO WARRANT VALUE DO NOTHING
$18~$1.331 share, pay $11.500.361 sh$6.50$0.01
$27~$2.001 share, pay $11.500.574 sh$15.50$0.01
$45~$3.331 share, pay $11.500.744 sh$33.50$0.01
$90~$6.671 share, pay $11.500.872 sh$78.50$0.01
Cashless exercise formula: shares per warrant = (stock − $11.50) ÷ stock. Uncapped (no $10 trigger / 0.361-share table in this agreement — confirmed in Exhibit 4.2). FMV = 5-day average close ending 3 trading days before the notice, so it's locked at notice time. Cashless is at management's option; expect cash exercise (≈$135M to the company) — keep cash or use the self-directed route below.
🚨 What to do on a call: During the 30-day window: (a) sell warrants in market, (b) cash-exercise (pay $11.50, keep 1 share riding future scenarios), or (c) cashless if offered. Doing nothing = $0.01 per warrant. Set news alerts on XRPN via Bloomberg/Nasdaq/SEC EDGAR before close.
💡 THE NO-CASH PLAYBOOK — KEEPING EXPOSURE WITHOUT WRITING A CHECK

Can't fund a full cash exercise ($11.50 × every warrant)? You're not stuck choosing between all-cash and walking away. Every no-new-cash route lands on the same result: you retain (price − $11.50) ÷ price of your exposure.

The self-directed route: Sell 11.50 ÷ stock price of your warrants in the market, use proceeds to cash-exercise the rest. No outside cash needed. No dependence on management offering cashless. Only the sold slice touches the (possibly thin) warrant market.
EXAMPLE: HOLDING 100,000 WARRANTS
STOCK AT CALL EXPOSURE RETAINED WARRANTS SOLD EXERCISED → SHARES POSITION VALUE
$1836.1%63,88936,111~$650,000
$2757.4%42,59357,407~$1,550,000
$4574.4%25,55674,444~$3,350,000
$9087.2%12,77887,222~$7,850,000
Two useful properties: (1) The retained percentage is the same at any position size — 100 warrants or 1M warrants, same math. (2) The percentage rises with call price — the forced call shrinks as a problem exactly when the trade is working. Position value at conversion is route-independent (always warrants × (price − $11.50)). What full cash exercise additionally buys is keeping 100% of shares in the bear/base/bull tree afterward. Tax note: selling warrants recognizes gain immediately; exercising defers into shares — plan with a tax pro before any call window opens.

4 · Background

How the model works, the deal data, and the fine print. Click a card to open it.
THE FOUR-STEP MODEL (per Amendment 6)
1 · XRP PER SHARE
Locked at the official $1.43069 print. Closing 8-K counts: 22.27M Class A + 32.21M Class C + 23.09M Company Units = 77,569,653. XRP/share = 473.27M ÷ 77.57M ≈ 6.10.
2 · NAV PER SHARE
(XRP price today × XRP per share) + cash per share. Moves live with XRP. Use market value, not GAAP book (carried at ~$0.74 cost because Ripple is a related party).
3 · STOCK PRICE
mNAV × NAV. Market's premium/discount on the wrapper: Bear 0.8×, Base 1.5×, Bull 2.5×, plus a 4th column that by default tracks the implied mNAV from the Market Check panel (stock ÷ NAV, live) and can be switched to a Custom multiple you type. Anything above ~2.5× is a float-starvation premium (4.85M tradable shares); expect it to compress as warrants convert from Oct 9 (exercisable at closing per the Oct 5 amendment) and PIPE/lockup shares arrive.
4 · WARRANT VALUE = max(0, stock price − $11.50) — intrinsic only, by design. No time value is modeled (that needs an implied volatility, which is a guess on a stock that halts). So the bear case understates what the warrant would trade for; the safe direction to be wrong. — full chain: XRP × 6.10 + $0.58 → NAV → ×mNAV → stock − $11.50 = warrant
Rules of thumb at 6.10 XRP/share ($1.43069 close, 80.3% redeemed): at 1.0× mNAV the warrant has intrinsic value once XRP > ~$1.78; at 1.5× it's in the money with XRP flat (~$2.60 intrinsic); at 2.5× XRP flat gives ~$12 intrinsic. Exercisable from closing Oct 9 (amended Oct 5), so expect the warrant to converge toward intrinsic (3–8% discount) within days of the Oct 12 listing, not in November.
SNAPSHOT BY REDEMPTION SCENARIO (XRP/share locked at closing price)
DEAL DATA · FINAL — OCT 9, 2026 CLOSING 8-K
Strike price$11.50
Total warrants11,739,645
Warrant expiry~Oct 2031 (5 yrs post-close)
XRP held (treasury)~473.27M
Net cash at close (est.)~$45M ($48M trust + $30M note − fees)
Public shares redeemed18,463,753 of 23M (80.3%) at ~$10.58
Public float at the Oct 12 open4,846,247 Class A
Class C + Company Units (insiders)32.21M + 23.09M · lock-up to Apr 9, 2027
Sponsor retention42.33% kept (0.7 × price ratio); 115,347 private warrants forfeited
Total economic interests (8-K)77,569,653
Signing XRP price$2.36609
Convertible note$30M · 4% PIK · conv. ~$10.20
NAV/share @ $1.43069 close~$9.30
XRP/share @ $1.43069 close~6.10 + ~$0.58 cash
mNAV scenarios0.8× / 1.5× / 2.5×
Public float vs warrants4.85M shares vs 11.5M public warrants
SPAC REDEMPTIONS — RESULT: 80.3% REDEEMED

The redemption deadline was Sep 28, 2026. The Oct 1 joint release says ~$48M of the ~$242M trust is coming to the deal, i.e. roughly 18.4M of 23M public shares redeemed at ~$10.52. Exact count arrives in the closing 8-K.

✓ NAV survived; the float didn't. The ~473M XRP was contributed outside the trust, so heavy redemptions barely moved NAV/share (~$9.30 at the $1.43069 print). What changed is the tradable float: ~4.85M public shares on Oct 12 against 11.5M public warrants. That is why XRPN ran from $10.58 to $36 in four sessions with volatility halts — and why the premium is fragile once warrants convert, which can begin at closing on Oct 9.
ACTUAL (~80% RDM) — LOCKED
~4.85M public shares stay; ~$45M net cash. At the $1.43069 print: NAV/share ~$9.30, ~6.10 XRP/sh. Float triples when warrants convert.
IF NOBODY HAD REDEEMED (for reference)
All 23M stay; ~$239M cash. NAV/share ~$9.60 but only ~4.8 XRP/sh — less leverage to an XRP rally, four times the float.
THE PRINT (for reference)
Tue $1.5029 · Wed $1.4196 · Thu $1.3744 → $1.43069. A $1.50 print would have given ~5.9 XRP/sh; $1.43069 gives ~6.10 — about 4% more leverage.
Bottom line: Heavy redemptions gave warrant holders a higher ceiling (premium on a starved float) and a more violent path. The premium is being set on 4.85M shares; the warrant market prices against the ~16M that exist once warrants convert — and conversion can begin Oct 9. The warrant discount should close fast once exercise opens.
⚠ GAAP ACCOUNTING TRAP — DON'T VALUE FROM THE BALANCE SHEET

Because Ripple is a related party, the XRP fails the scoping test for fair-value crypto accounting and stays at historical cost less impairment. This creates two big traps:

TRAP 1 · BOOK VALUE UNDERSTATES
~$497.8M of impairments already booked. Tokens carried at ~$0.74 each on the balance sheet. Pro forma losses run ~$4.30/share/half-year. If XRP rallies to $5, the book still shows $0.74/token. Recoveries never written back up.
TRAP 2 · QUANT SCREENS MISS IT
Automated screens reading GAAP book may structurally under-rate XRPN vs fair-value peers like Strategy (MSTR). This is a headwind for the mNAV premium thesis — screen-driven capital may not find it.
The right way: Value on disclosed XRP-per-share × market XRP price, never book value. That's what this calculator does.
KEY RISKS & FINE PRINT
  • Float-expansion risk (replaces deal-break risk): Vote passed Sep 30; closing Fri Oct 9 (slipped from Oct 7). The live risk is now premium compression as supply arrives: warrant conversion from Oct 9 (up to 11.5M shares vs a 4.85M float), PIPE resale S-1 (~Nov–Dec, ~13.7M), then lockup expiries (2027, ~61M). XRP flat + float expanding is the bear case.
  • SBI voting cap: ~$195M anchor investor SBI capped at 39.9% voting power; excess goes to non-voting Class C (economics unchanged).
  • RippleWorks proxy: Directs the Sponsor's 19.9% voting stake.
  • Tax receivable agreement: Sends 85% of certain future tax savings to insiders.
  • Charter authorizes 10B shares: Machinery for large future issuance. Grows or dilutes XRP-per-share depending on whether stock is sold above or below NAV.
  • Sponsor promote scaled: Sponsor's original 70% retention scales with close price ratio. At a $1.50 close, keeps ~3.0M shares (~3.8% of company) — down from ~8.28M original.
  • Amendment 6 transferred ~$322M of value: Remeasuring investor obligations at Aug 5 prices under new terms reduces them by ~$322M — the dollar size of what funders and sponsor collectively gave up to make the deal work.
📌 HAND-TYPED SNAPSHOT — AS OF OCTOBER 9, 2026 (not live; prices move daily)
Closing print $1.43069 (Oct 6/7/8) · XRPN ~$36 intraday Oct 2 (~3.9× NAV; $23.43 Oct 1 close; two LULD halts Sep 29) · XRPNW $2.90 Oct 1 close (≈13% of intrinsic at Oct 2 prices — gap should close once exercise opens Oct 9) · S-4 effective Aug 27 · vote passed Sep 30 (20.5M for / 1.36M against) · ~80% of public shares redeemed, ~$48M trust remains · $30M convertible funds at close · deal CLOSED Fri Oct 9 (8-K: 77,569,653 interests, 80.3% redeemed, XRP at BitGo, 6-month lock-up to Apr 9, 2027), XRPN trades as Evernorth Mon Oct 12 · ~473.27M XRP · 11,739,645 warrants · expiry ~Oct 2031 · options on XRPN listed Oct 1 (thin chain) · Oct 5: warrant agreement amended — exercisable at closing, not 30 days later.
Not investment advice. This document describes a model and its assumptions, reconciled against S-4/A Amendment No. 6 including its unaudited pro forma financial statements. SPAC warrants can lose their entire value, including by ignoring a forced-call notice. Key figures come from S-4/A Amendment No. 6 (File No. 333-294417), the Oct 1, 2026 vote-results 8-K and joint press release, and the amended warrant agreement (Exhibit 4.2); the closing 8-K will supersede share counts. Verify at sec.gov (Armada CIK 2044009, Evernorth CIK 2092592). mNAV premium is speculative — sector premiums (see Strategy/MSTR) have compressed hard. XRP/share is calculated from the locked closing print ($1.43069 = average of the Oct 6/7/8 CME CF XRPUSD_NY 4pm ET prints): 473.27M XRP ÷ (4.85M public + 113.4M × 1.43069 ÷ $2.36609 + retained founder shares + 0.48M delayed shares) ≈ 6.10. Net cash (~$45M est.) is added to NAV per share rather than assumed deployed into XRP. "Fully diluted" adds all 11.72M warrants cash-exercised (+$135M, +11.72M sh) and the $30M note converted at ~$10.20 (+2.94M sh); a cashless call would add fewer shares and no cash.